The MLB season is getting closer and the AL East is still an interesting division to watch. Here are my top 10 starting pitchers for 2022, along with their projected stats.
The “best pitchers mlb 2021” is a ranking of the top 10 starting pitchers for the 2022 MLB season. The list includes Gerrit Cole, Chris Sale, and more.
As the start of the 2022 MLB season approaches, New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, a couple of Toronto Blue Jays veterans, several formerly outstanding pitchers with significant injury histories, and a slew of up-and-comers take center stage in the American League East.
But who is the division’s top starting pitcher? How do the remaining top choices compare?
This ranking of the top ten AL East starting pitchers is based on a mix of previous performance and future forecasts, taking into account everything from continuing injury concerns to probable progression/regression in order to forecast the projected level of play for the full 2022 season.
That latter point cannot be overstated.
These rankings, starting with the five honorable mentions listed below, are not snapshots of a single instant in time. They also don’t forecast the ultimate level when the playoff field for 2022 is set. They use anecdotal insights and a lot of data to account for predicted volume and output during the campaign.
Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays; Tanner Houck, Boston Red Sox; Luis Patino, Tampa Bay Rays; Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays; Hyun Jin Ryu, Toronto Blue Jays; Honorable Mentions: Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays; Tanner Houck, Boston Red Sox; Luis Patino, Tampa Bay Rays; Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays; Hyun Jin Ryu, Toronto Blue Jays
10. New York Yankees’ Luis Severino
Luis Severino, starting pitcher for the New York Yankees | Winslow Townson/Getty Images
Age: 28
6.0 IP, 0 GS, 1-0, 8 K, 1 BB, 0.00 ERA, 0.50 WHIP, 0.2 WAR, 2021 Stats
133.0 IP, 23 GS, 10-7, 140 K, 35 BB, 3.69 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 3.0 WAR projected for 2022
It’s almost hard to evaluate Luis Severino at this point, if only because it’s been so long since he’s pitched in a significant sample of MLB games. If he’s completely functional and at the top of his game, dazzling hitters with a combination of high-octane fastballs and knee-buckling sliders, he’ll rocket up these rankings.
Severino, on the other hand, has only tossed 18 innings since posting a 3.39 ERA and 220 strikeouts across 191.1 innings in 2018. Over the course of those seven appearances, four of which came out of the bullpen, he’s been fairly productive, but even the New York Yankees may not have a realistic notion of how he’ll look completely stretched out.
We’ll take a risk and depend on the overwhelming potential in his 28-year-old physique, and his fastball touched 98.7 mph during his first spring outing, which is promising. However, until his leadership returns and he proves that he can remain fit, care must be maintained.
Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox, No. 9
Age: 32
2021 stats: 42.2 IP, 9 GS, 5-1, 52 K, 12 BB, 3.16 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 0.8 WAR, 42.2 IP, 9 GS, 5-1, 52 K, 12 BB, 3.16 ERA, 1.34 WHIP
113.0 IP, 20 GS, 8-6, 136 K, 36 BB, 3.90 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 2.4 WAR projected for 2022
Concerns about injury raise their ugly heads once again. Chris Sale only threw 42.2 innings in 2021 while recovering from Tommy John surgery that held him out for the entire 2020 season — and he also lost time due to a positive COVID-19 test — but when he was well, he was terrific.
His strikeout rates didn’t quite approach peak levels, but he threw his third perfect inning of the season against the Minnesota Twins and recorded a 3.16 ERA that only slightly outperformed some of the underlying measures (3.35 xFIP, 3.44 SIERA).
Above all, keep an eye on Sale’s slider. If he’s back to producing swings and misses when he throws his first pitch, it’ll be a sign that we’ve badly undersold him. During his 2019 attempts, the pitch’s whiff rate and put-away percentage were 35.7 and 28.3%, respectively, compared to 44.4 and 31.7 percent in 2018, when he placed fourth in the AL Cy Young contest. However, they dropped to 32.0 and 20.9 percent upon his comeback in 2021, and even if he remains healthy, he won’t be able to return to a genuinely exceptional level without his slider tricking hitter after batter.
Baltimore Orioles’ John Means (#8)
John Means, starting pitcher for the Baltimore Orioles | Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images
Age: 28
Stats for 2021: 146.2 innings, 26 games, 6-9, 134 strikeouts, 26 walks, 3.62 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 2.5 WAR
164.0 IP, 29 GS, 10-12, 145 K, 41 BB, 4.54 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 2.1 WAR projected for 2022
Because gopheritis has always hampered John Means at the major league level, the enlargement of the left-field walls at Camden Yards could aid him. Even in 2021, he allowed 1.84 home runs per nine innings, a number that must drop if he is to reach the next level. With greater room in his home park, a pitcher who has given up seven home runs more than expected in each of the 2020 and 2021 seasons could benefit.
Means, on the other hand, will have the luxury of consistency in 2022. Last year, his spin rate fell due to the league’s crackdown on sticky substances before returning to normal in the second part of the season. Moving ahead, he shouldn’t have those kinds of swings, and it’s worth noting that he was struggling with ongoing physical difficulties for most of that period after getting out to a fast start (2.79 ERA through 93.2 IP).
Means’ changeup and slider are generating more whiffs, and he’s thrown more curveballs in each of the previous two seasons. That final pitch almost always gets the ball on the ground, which is wonderful news as he tries to shake off his gopheritis and have his finest season ever.
Jordan Montgomery of the New York Yankees is number seven.
Age: 29
Stats for 2021: 157.1 innings, 30 games, 6-7, 162 strikeouts, 51 walks, 3.83 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 3.3 WAR
160.0 IP, 30 GS, 12-10, 159 K, 51 BB, 4.08 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 2.8 WAR projected for 2022
Is this Jordan Montgomery’s year to pull it all together? He’s been teased about it for the previous several seasons, but he hasn’t properly optimized his armament.
Montgomery’s changeup is one of the best pitches in the game. In 2021, he threw it 24.4 percent of the time and kept hitters to a.187 xBA and.382 xSLG while striking out 39.2 percent of batters. He doesn’t have a very powerful fastball (92.6 mph), but the spin he applies to his 82.5 mph off-speed pitch makes it virtually tough for batters to square it up consistently. In 2021, it generated 11.1 runs over average, which helped to offset a dreadful fastball that was simply too hittable (-7.9 runs above average).
Montgomery, for whatever reason, threw the four-seamer more in 2021 and the changeup less in 2020. Because the fundamental talents in play here may be so enticing, correcting that is a simple breakout blueprint.
6. Boston Red Sox pitcher Nathan Eovaldi
Age: 32
Stats for 2021: 182.1 innings, 32 games, 11-9, 195 strikeouts, 35 walks, 3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 5.6 WAR
167.0 IP, 29 GS, 12-10, 167 K, 42 BB, 4.07 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.4 WAR projected for 2022
Don’t believe any predictions that the first-time All-Star will suffer a huge setback. After hinting at breakouts in previous seasons, Nathan Eovaldi made a lot of leaps ahead last season, and everything points to those performances being sustainable.
His 3.75 ERA was accompanied by a league-leading 2.79 FIP, which was fueled by a walk rate (1.73 BB/9) that no other qualifying pitcher in the majors could match. Despite an unlucky.326 BABIP and a bullpen that allowed a decent percentage of inherited runners to score, he effectively averted runs (70.4 LOB percent ). With hard-hit fly balls falling short of outfield fences, his 3.48 xFIP, 3.37 xERA, and 3.60 SIERA accounted for part of his luck, but even they imply that his ERA was more unfortunate than lucky.
Injuries have hampered Eovaldi in the past, and he may not have another level to reach after his outstanding efforts that earned him a fourth-place Cy Young award, but his dominant curveball and arsenal of good-but-not-great supporting pitches should be enough for him to treat 2021 as his new normal.
5. Toronto Blue Jays’ Alek Manoah
Alek Manoah, starting pitcher for the Toronto Blue Jays | Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images
Age: 24
Stats for 2021: 111.2 innings, 20 games, 9-2, 127 strikeouts, 40 walks, 3.22 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 2.0 WAR
157.0 IP, 28 GS, 11-8, 173 K, 58 BB, 3.96 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.5 WAR projected for 2022
It’s not easy to go in and seem like you control the mound right away, but Alek Manoah accomplished just that for the Toronto Blue Jays. He pitched confidence pitch after confident pitch against the New York Yankees in his debut (6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 7 K), often peppering the outside of the plate with strikes and deceiving the sluggers in pinstripes, and he did so throughout his rookie season.
His fastball and slider are both excellent pitches. His command (3.22 BB/9) should be better, but he’s getting the most out of his pitches by tricking batters into making softer contact that doesn’t lead to extra-base hits. And, as good as he was in his debut major league season (particularly if the.246 BABIP is due in part to a great batted-ball profile rather than sheer luck), he still has space to improve.
Because batters had little reason to fear a hittable changeup, Manoah regularly found himself working deeper into counts. If that pitch improves to the point of being acceptable — not “excellent” — he’ll have real ace potential, as we witnessed in his debut against the Yankees when it was piling up whiffs.
4. Tampa Bay Rays’ Shane McClanahan
Age: 24
123.1 IP, 25 GS, 10-6, 141 K, 37 BB, 3.43 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 2.5 WAR, 2021 Stats
148.0 IP, 28 GS, 10-10, 163 K, 53 BB, 4.01 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 2.8 WAR projected for 2022
Isn’t it usually the case that the Tampa Bay Rays are working on something unique on the mound? Shane Baz, Luis Patino, and Drew Rasmussen were all named honorable mentions for the AL East, and that’s without even taking into account the pitching instructors that helped Corey Kluber get back on track. Shane McClanahan, on the other hand, should have a great season.
(Now, if only the Rays would pay their pitchers once they’d matured instead of trying to compete with low overhead expenses, but that’s beside the point.)
Even though his velocity dropped at the end of the season, McClanahan’s slider is nasty, with a 39.9% whiff rate in his rookie season. If he can combine that with better command of his heater, which missed the zone far too often and was hittable when it did find the plate, he’ll help the Rays give him more opportunities to finish the sixth inning and take those strides that seem almost inevitable given his command of his pitches and a legitimate go-to offering.
Kevin Gausman of the Toronto Blue Jays is ranked third.
Age: 31
2021 stats: 192.0 IP, 33 GS, 14-16, 227 K, 50 BB, 2.81 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 4.8 WAR, 192.0 IP, 33 GS, 14-16, 227 K, 50 BB, 2.81 ERA, 1.04 WHIP
176.0 IP, 30 GS, 12-10, 202 K, 54 BB, 4.11 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.2 WAR projected for 2022
Kevin Gausman has a high strikeout rate. His splitter is a nasty weapon that creates whiff after whiff (17.7 runs over average). He has perfect command of his whole arsenal, walking just 2.34 hitters per nine innings, which matches his lifetime BB/9 of 2.64.
However, care is required for two reasons, both of which prohibit him from breaking into the genuine top tier.
First, Gausman’s fastball came out of nowhere in 2021 to be a distinctively positive pitch, and we need to see it reproduced before we stop worrying about regression. It was a negatively valued pitch in 2017, 2018, and 2019 before rising to 2.4 runs above average in 2020 and a staggering 11.5 runs above average in 2021, which is particularly concerning given that the.257 batting average and.416 slugging percentage it produced last season were significantly better than the expected values of.278 and.485, respectively.
Second, and related to the previous argument, Gausman is due for some home run regression. In 2021, he had a career-low 11.3 HR/FB percentage and gave up 0.94 home runs per nine innings. His career numbers are 13.3 and 1.21, and he’ll be moving from Oracle Park to Rogers Centre, where he should expect to face a lot more hard-hit fly balls.
2. Toronto Blue Jays’ Jose Berrios
Jose Berrios, starting pitcher for the Toronto Blue Jays | Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images
Age: 27
2021 stats: 192.0 IP, 32 GS, 12-9, 204 K, 45 BB, 3.52 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 4.1 WAR, 192.0 IP, 32 GS, 12-9, 204 K, 45 BB, 3.52 ERA, 1.06 WHIP
189.0 IP, 31 GS, 13-10, 187 K, 56 BB, 3.97 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 3.4 WAR projected for 2022
Jose Berrios isn’t exactly in that exclusive group, either. The right-hander for the Toronto Blue Jays flourished during the half-season he spent north of the border after being traded from the Minnesota Twins in the middle of the season, but he still has the same limitations.
Because his changeup and curveball alternate between being putaway pitches and meatball offerings, he’s forced to depend on his fastball much too often. They’re both fascinating pitches with a lot of potential, but his inability to control them from one start to the next adds to his profile’s volatility and makes him to depend on his best pitch far too much.
Berrios is still coming off a season in which he had a 3.52 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 3.59 xFIP, and 3.65 SIERA, but it’s difficult to envision him making another step forward. Fortunately for the Blue Jays rotation, even a repeat of last season’s performance would be fantastic.
1. New York Yankees’ Gerrit Cole
Age: 31
2021 Stats: 181.1 IP, 30 GS, 16-8, 243 K, 41 BB, 3.23 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 5.3 WAR, 181.1 IP, 30 GS, 16-8, 243 K, 41 BB, 3.23 ERA, 1.06 WHIP
189.0 IP, 30 GS, 15-9, 247 K, 51 BB, 3.39 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 4.9 WAR projected for 2022
Remember how we were all worried that the MLB’s crackdown on Spider Tack might jeopardize Gerrit Cole’s reign of terror? That’s all for now. In the immediate aftermath, he stopped raising his fastball as regularly, but he quickly returned to the dominating standard he’d set for himself over the years.
His past nine outings, after a rocky July, had a 3.53 ERA (3.15 FIP), 67 strikeouts, and just 13 walks in 51 innings, for a 3.53 ERA (3.15 FIP). Cole’s fastball and slider are still among the best in the game, and his changeup continues to produce whiffs after whiffs. Even though his curveball is the worst of his four major pitches, he still manages to get lots of called strikes at crucial moments.
His position atop the AL East is unassailable.
Unless otherwise stated, all stats are courtesy of Baseball Reference, Fangraphs, and Baseball Savant.
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The “eno sarris pitcher rankings 2022” is a ranking of the top 10 starting pitchers in the American League East for the 2022 MLB Season.
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